Repost: Market Comment March 2020

Court Guinness resurrects an old column he used to write in which he takes an opinionated and sometimes irreverent view of what he sees in the market
place.


In this issue he looks back at the start of 2020 and looks forward to the rest of the year.
We are now out of the EU. The big issues and potential disruption is to follow. I still think this is the most helmless project I have ever seen and I have seen so many badly run projects in my time.
The last edition of Market Comment was written 2 days before a general election, well this edition did not want to be outdone so comes to you written from a cubicle in the Accident and Emergency department at Warwick Hospital
in the UK! I wonder what will be managed for next edition, the back of a nuclear tank or hopefully somewhere more relaxing like the beach or more likely my desk, we can hope!
We have seen some softening of property and business values this year and I think this may continue. Market Comment is always one of the last things to be written in this magazine. I always try and make sure it is as up to
date as possible and that I can try and predict things going forward.

The smaller end of the deals market is strengthening and I am seeing a growing number of possible sales for the following 12 months in the sub £100k bracket.
The other thing that has amazed me is the number of the more unusual and exotic deals that are doing the rounds.
I was a bit too late or a £14 million pharma company but both an oil rig and a car ferry have crossed my desk and there was a possibility of a requirement or professional footballers to be advertised on these pages!
It has come to the point in retail where I am now so appalled at the state of the sector and its knock on effects that it has almost become comedic. Physical retail needs change and I do not see many people interested in effecting this change and keeping the high street as a vibrant,
busy place.


Now on to the death of the independent contractor from the 1st of April owing to the stringent reintroduction of IR35. Clients are dumping contractors unless they go on payroll or to umbrella companies and contractors are
hanging up their boots and saying “I quit!” The Trade House is receiving about 100 enquiries a month from independent contractors leaving the sector. Government’s interference in enterprise is to blame. They are interfering
in much the same way with private residential landlords but that is a another story for another day. The removal of Sajid Javid as chancellor means things will probably get even worse for every business in the country.
Let us now move on to the concept of the side hustle.
This is now a serious thing, so much so that I have decided that side hustlers should have their own dedicated section in this magazine. This will grow in future issues. On a serious the concept of the side hustle is one to be
commended and one that is showcasing the creativity and ability of side hustle owners and operators and this is to be commended. I often bang the drum on small business marketing and how poor some of it is but I do have
to credit some of the side hustles I have seen for the effort they have put I to marketing. I do honestly believe that this sector will start to change the rest of the small business sector in terms of marketing.
Lastly on a housekeeping note I shall be running some
“meet the readers events” in 2020 and I would be delighted to see as many of you as possible at these events.
You will also note that I brought forward the publishing of
this issue from March to February 2020. We will publish
every other month now until the end of the year. I am recruiting for staff to help me return to a monthly schedule.
Please note that I am delighted to hear readers views
about this column or any other aspect of this magazine.
I look forward to speaking with you all again on a regular
basis between now and the end of the year.
Happy dealmaking !
Regards
Court

Repost: MArket Comment Year End 2019

In this issue he looks back 2019 as a whole and looks forward to 2020.
So lets looks back on 2019. Retail, Property prices lowering, politics and the lovely Brexit. Add in to that mix other matters close to many our readers hearts and it has been a bit of a turbulent year.


We have seen some softening of property and business values this year and I think this may continue. Market Comment is always one of the last things to be written in this magazine. I always try and make sure it is as up to
date as possible and that I can try and predict things going forward. As I write we are two days from a general election in the UK. This makes 2020 very, very hard to predict indeed. I think that rent values will soften especially in retail—there is too much vacant stock. The Trade House does not take political sides even if I would like it to. I will however stick my neck out and suggest an 8%
drop in value across the board using this editions adverts in this magazine as my baseline, regardless of sector or deal type.

When the retail rot ever stop? We are getting to the stage of at least one major retailer a month causing attention grabbing headlines. This is becoming an international issue that impacts on so many. All parties need to come
together now to ensure that retail led public realm does not get lost forever

Let us now move on to the concept of the side hustle.
This is now a serious thing, so much so that I have decided that side hustlers should have their own dedicated section in this magazine. This will grow in future issues. On a serious note the concept of the side hustle is one to be
commended and one that is showcasing the creativity and ability of side hustle owners and operators and this is to be commended. I often bang the drum on small business marketing and how poor some of it is but I do have
to credit some of the side hustles I have seen for the effort they have put I to marketing. I do honestly believe that this sector will start to change the rest of the small business sector in terms of marketing.

Lastly on a housekeeping note I shall be running some
“meet the readers events” in 2020 and I would be delighted to see as many of you as possible at these events.
Happy dealmaking !
Regards
Court

Repost Market Comment November 2018


In this issue he looks back on the month of October 2018.
I can say with some certainty that October 2018 has been one of the best Octobers in business. Not only were there lots of opportunities to speak with readers of this magazine and advertisers old and new, there were also a
number of things to get excited about. In addition there was for me a home and office move from Surrey to Warwickshire.


The first thing to talk about this month is retail. Physical retail is going so badly wrong on so many levels. I blame some landlords for intransigence and not helping their tenants by sticking to the letter of the contract, some flexibility will go along a way. I blame some landlords for being too quick to go for a residential conversation. At the end of the day if a high street goes so does a community. Now that is a shame. I have written elsewhere about
making retail an experience. I think retail as a business to do this however I do not believe they have buy in from the property people or the finance people! If retail can change for the better then it is better for everyone.

While we talk about getting people through doors, pub landlords must stand up and take some stick from me this month. News has been reaching me of some hideous and in some cases unjustifiable rent increases recently. Again is a part of a community as much as a retail unit. Pubs have had a tough time in recent years we can see this by the number of closures of pubs. Give your tenants
a break! It will be worth it in the long run! The odd percentage point here or there, yes but 20% +? Computer says no!


I now move on to freelancers and independent contractors who are foaming at the mouth after the budget announcement that the tax system of off payroll working (IR35) will not be extended to the private sector just yet.
For many years IT contracting was my trade. That aside this industry has had since 1999 to clean up its act, to change its modus operandi and to move with the times.
Writing this one day after the Autumn 2018 budget I have already seen so many contractors bleating on email and social media about this. The problem is that the industry does not want to change. This is a bad thing for projects
up and down the country and some need to shape up or ship out!


Aside of this negativity this September has been a lovely month aside of the negativity above. Its lovely to see the property development guys being so active in the run up to the festive season, deals regularly being struck and plans made revitalise properties previously unusable. I note a great deal valour going into these projects too with some developers clearly unafraid to push the boundaries—in a good way! I hope we see more this sense of adventure in years to come. It is actually a good thing for business as a whole and an excellent thing for the sector itself.
Inspite of daylight hours drawing in November does look like it will be an excellent month for dealmaking with many people looking to get a large number of deal before the Christmas party and festive season starts with
aplomb.


I look forward to speaking with you all again next month!
Happy dealmaking !
Warmest regards
Court

Repost: Market Comment October 2018

Court Guinness resurrects an old column he used to write in which he takes an opinionated and sometimes irreverent view of what he sees in the marketplace.

In this issue he looks back on the month of September 2018.

Looking over and surveying my desk late in September 2018 I can safely say that this September has been very busy indeed. There has been an awful lot of activity and some of it negative, which is a shame.

Allow mw to deal with the negative first. An awful lot of bad press has reached me regarding disappointed, dissatisified and disgruntled franchisees across all sectors.
Even more worrying seems to be the number of unhappy
franchisees specific to the food, beverage and hospitality sectors. The large number of enquries and general emails I have received on this subject is alarming. I expect resale instructions to rise between now and the calendar year
end. It has t0 be said though that the health care franchising sectors do not cover themselves in glory either!

Another key theme appearing this month is finance. Their are a great many people looking for deals, who do not appear to have the cash! I am sorry boys and girls but “I will worry about the money later!” is not a sensible thing
to do and lowers the tone of dealmaking. Always, always get your ducks in a row first before approaching anyone about doing deals.

Aside of this negativity this September has been a lovely month . Its lovely to see the property development guys being so active in the run up to the festive season, deals regularly being struck and plans made revitalise properties previously unusable. I note a great deal valour going into these projects too with
some developers clearly unafraid to push the boundaries—in a good way! I hope we see more this sense of adventure in years to come. It is actually a good thing for business as a whole and an excellent thing for the sector itself.

Once again it is time to talk about Brexit in this column. This is getting serious baby! We now have a limited amount of time left before we in the UK are out of the EU. This magazine has already had to make some changes because of Brexit! I am more concerned about the prospect of factory shutdowns and further disruption of the same ilk and the effect that this will have on our relevant sectors.

In short September has been a good month, roll on October!

I look forward to speaking with you all again next month!

Happy dealmaking !

Warmest regards
Court

Repost: Market Comment September 2018

Court Guinness resurrects an old column he used to
write in which he takes an opinionated and sometimes irreverent view of what he sees in the market place.

In this issue he looks back on the month of August 2018.


Looking over and surveying my desk late in August 2018 I can safely say that this August has been far from one of the quietest on record. It will not rank as one of the busiest of my 23 years in industry but it has been, well industrious.

I note that this year August seems to have been taken up with “prep work” with many people I speak to in the deal making trade putting building blocks in place for the end of the year and in some cases looking well forward to the period just past Christmas. I talk more about the Christmas period and its impact on dealmaking in the lifestyle sector later in this issue. I have said much the same thing for many years and it is heartening to see this advice being gently taken on board and that some dealmakers are not leaving things until the last minute.

On a cautionary note I have heard some jittery voices in respect of the unlovely Brexit. I am not sure how this will play out however some sectors of the marketplace do already have their belts and braces at the ready!

On the basis of activity in August and my note above the run to 2019 does look to be a good one in dealmaking circles and I do have good hopes for the markets.


I look forward to speaking with you all again next month!

Repost: Market Comment 2018

Market Comment
Court Guinness resurrects an old column he used to write in which he takes an opinionated and sometimes irreverent view of what he sees in the market place.
In this issue he looks back on the month of July 2018.


As I ruminate whilst writing this column, the children have all but finished their academic and scholastic year. This usually signals a almost deathly quiet time for dealmaking, business opportunities and business sales regardless of sector as families seek to spend quality time together and enjoy any sunshine that is available in their own part of the world.

I should really take a holiday too, however this year is shaping up to be quite a lively school holiday season. It’s a sure thing that September is always exponentially busier than August however with the uncertainties there are
in the world at the moment I am confident that this August will not be most quietest on record.

In all my 23 years in the trade August 2017 rates as the quietest on record. In the past few weeks I have taken quite a number of enquiries relating to some very creative deals and Brexit does seem to be quite the driver here. There is still a lack of confidence in the Brexit process and the future and I believe this will continue until a long time after the deadline. However it does mean that there are plenty of deals to be done.

Many people are waiting until the September issue of this magazine and I already have a lot of new listings booked for the September issue. The autumn
promises to be very exciting for everyone who is looking to strike deals regardless of the composition of the deal.


As I close I hope that all readers manage to enjoy some quality time and some sunshine during the last of the summer.

Last Chance To Read Market Comment

This is the last chance to read  Market Comment.

Market Comment is Court Guinness’ clarksonistic take on what is happening in the market place. In this issue he manages to make jibes about eye tests,  Le Creuset pots and pans, people carriers and the Barclaycard fraud department while commenting on dealmaking. Please do read on below.